Technical analysts suggest that months of low volatility is often followed by a big price move.
The Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) 90-day price volatility hit a new multi-year low in August as the top two cryptocurrencies continue to trade under their key resistance of $30,000 and $2,000, respectively.
According to data shared by crypto analytic firm Kaiko, the 90-day volatility of BTC and ETH hit 35% and 37%, respectively, making it less volatile than oil, with volatility of 41%. Such a decline in the price momentum of the top two crypto assets was last seen in 2016.
The chart above indicates that BTC’s and ETH’s price volatility is more than half than at the same time last year. While August is considered a bullish month for the crypto ecosystem, the declining price fluctuation is considered bullish by many.
Apart from the 90-day volatility at its lowest in seven years, the daily Bitcoin volatility is also at a five-year low.
A Bitcoin technical analyst who goes by the social media name of “CryptoCon” took to the X platform to share observations about Bitcoin’s price volatility decline and what actually follows the period of low volatility.
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The technical analyst noted that Bitcoin’s price went through a similar cycle of low price volatility in 2020 before the bull market picked up; however, they warned against the sideways movement of the top cryptocurrency.
#Bitcoin volatility continues to decrease, which I’ve shown is bullish
But the burning question is, when does the sideways grind end?
Upon thinking about I was reminded of a time very similar to now… pic.twitter.com/psO50vxUWD
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) August 16, 2023
The analyst noted that despite the Black Swan event of 2020, when BTC’s price fell over 50% in a day below $5,000, Bitcoin made a recovery the very next month. However, when BTC’s price neared the $10,000 mark, the momentum vanished, again recording very low volatility. After three months of low volatility, the price of BTC broke out and created new highs before running into resistance again and seeing a sideways movement.
The analyst concluded that Bitcoin’s price leaps out of lows after a period of low volatility to form a first high, followed by another second high, while a third one is made against the key resistance. CryptoCon concluded that every major low volatility period for BTC is followed by a big move.
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